Louisiana Politics: Runoffs weren't kind to incumbents

Twice as many sitting legislators lost their election bids in the runoff this month as compared to the primary races in October, but the increase doesn’t quite signal a last minute anti-incumbent sentiment among voters in 2015.
Statewide, Attorney General Buddy Caldwell lost his re-election campaign as well, making him the second incumbent A.G. to be toppled in the past seven years.
Lawmakers went into this election cycle on the defensive following a series of controversial votes that raised nearly $800 million in mostly temporary taxes.
The efforts by many to explain their votes as a saving grace for higher education, which was facing significant cuts in the 2015 regular session, may have helped head off a tough election season for a majority of the Louisiana Legislature.
After three sitting legislators from the Legislature failed to secure re-election in the primary, six were were given their walking papers in the runoff.
Reps. Ritchie Burford, R-Stonewall; Henry Burns, R-Haughton; and Jeff Arnold, D-Algiers, were all defeated by legislative newcomers in their attempted moves to the state Senate.
In the state House, Reps. Joe Harrison, R-Napoleonville; Darrell Ourso, R-Baton Rouge; and Lenar Whitney, R-Houma, all lost their re-election bids.
Joshua Stockley, a professor of political science at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, said a higher volume of turnover would have convinced him of an anti-incumbent sentiment, but nine losses for sitting lawmakers — even in concert with a defeat for the incumbent attorney general — amounts to mostly isolated incidents.
“When you’re trying to switch over to a new chamber, like the representatives running for the Senate, they can be viewed as the incumbents sometimes but they’re often running in radically different districts,” Stockley said. “They’re facing whole new constituencies, so they kind of become a new candidate again.”

The 2016 ballot
After being handed the smaller share of the votes in the governor’s race, U.S. Sen. David Vitter told supporters that he would not seek re-election next year on the 2016 ballot.
That has helped ramp up the speculation about the race, with Congressman Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, saying two days after the runoff election that he’s preparing to make a major announcement “very soon.”
Boustany, Treasurer John Kennedy and Congressman John Fleming, R-Minden, have all said they would be interested in running for the Senate seat if Vitter does not. Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, who ran for the U.S. Senate last year, has said the same.
Friends of Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who ran third in the race for governor, is said to be sizing up a Senate run in 2016 as well. But he has also expressed some interest in the 3rd Congressional District should Boustany decide to go through with his plans to run for Vitter’s seat.
Aides to Gov. Bobby Jindal say the former presidential candidate is in no way interested in running, but other names have been floated lately.
Sources say former state Sen. Troy Hebert, a registered independent, is being encouraged to run for the U.S. Senate seat next year. Hebert announced last week that he will be stepping down as commissioner of the Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control at the end of year.
Also being encouraged to run for the U.S. Senate seat is Zach Dasher, the Republican cousin of the “Duck Dynasty” family who was narrowly edged out of the runoff last year in the 5th Congressional District.
Nationally, speculation on the Democratic side has focused on New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who has told reporters he hasn’t ruled it out, but appears more focused on finishing up his current term and possibly playing a regional role in the upcoming presidential election.
Boustany lands
choice sub chair
Boustany lands choice sub chair
On Capitol Hill, where you sit is who you are and Congressman Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, has a pretty nice chair for what’s to come in D.C. He was chosen last week to lead the Ways and Means Committee’s Tax Policy Subcommittee.
With House Speaker Paul Ryan and Ways and Means Chair Kevin Brady moving forward with tax reform, Boustany will have a key role to play. And he’ll play it well, given his past forays into tax policy and the national headlines they created.

Headed to capital
Ahead of the U.S. Justice Action Network, a bipartisan group, playing a heightened role in next year’s regular session, it released a poll last week showing overwhelming support among Louisiana voters to reform the state’s criminal justice system.
The group is expected to be an upfront stakeholder on these issues in Baton Rouge in 2016 and will arrive with resources for outreach and marketing.
Pelican Institute’s “Smart On Crime” campaign has already helped place a conservative face on the issue, due to president Kevin Kane’s involvement, and the addition of Justice Action Network could help create a high-profile agenda for the coming regular session.
Its poll found that almost 83 percent of Louisiana voters say the state’s criminal justice system is in need of some form of reform, with 56 percent saying it needs a major reform or a complete overhaul. This support cuts across party lines: 79 percent of Republicans support reform, along with 86 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of independents.
Nearly 79 percent of voters would eliminate mandatory minimum sentences and give judges more discretion in sentencing to take into account the circumstances of each case. Another 91 percent said Louisiana needs more rehabilitation and job training programs so offenders can better re-enter society after their sentence.

They said it
“This must be terrible for Jindal’s base, or whatever it is you call 0.3 percent.”
—”Late Show” host Stephen Colbert, on Gov. Bobby Jindal’s exit from the presidential race
“Does this mean you’re not going to have a job anymore?”
—Jindal, recalling what his son asked him after the governor dropped out of the presidential race
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.