Louisiana Politics: Senate race feels like a closed primary

Media coverage in Louisiana of the fall U.S. Senate race has often veered toward descriptions of mini-closed primaries playing out inside of the state’s storied jungle primary.
Unlike most other states, Louisiana elects its officials using an open primary system where all of the candidates run against each other on the first ballot. If no one gets more than 50 percent, the top two vote-getters will advance to the runoff. And that’s how Louisiana voters will select their next senator on Nov. 8.
In this year’s contest to replace U.S. Sen. David Vitter, a record-setting 24 candidates qualified to run, forcing campaigns to focus more on shoring up their respective bases rather than chasing crossover votes. It created an environment where intra-party attacks became necessary as candidates fought over the same segments of the electorate.
“The field got carried away and nobody wanted to step out,” said Roy Fletcher, a Baton Rouge media consultant, adding that the leading candidates from each party are starting to look like their carving out near-equal vote shares. “Nobody is breaking out of the pack because no one is saying anything. Somebody is going to have to get out there and say something, do something.”
On the Republican side, Congressman Charles Boustany, Congressman John Fleming, state Treasurer John Kennedy and retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness have all lobbed verbal bombs at each other at one point or another. Plus, Maness and Fleming, in particular, are competing for the same kind of far-right conservative voters.
In 2014, the last time Louisiana hosted a U.S. Senate election, Vitter helped clear the field of Republican candidates, which factored heavily into U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy’s win.
On the Democratic side, attorney Caroline Fayard has the support of New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Gov. John Bel Edwards has endorsed Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell.
With both mainline parties split, it’s doubtful that any one candidate will feel the full benefits of coordinated efforts from the Republicans and Democrats. Those resources will have to be focused on turning out party voters, rather than specific voters for a particular candidate.
“I don’t see any of this as a closed primary approach,” said state Sen. Norby Chabert of Houma, a former political consultant who quickly tossed aside the now widely-used metaphor. “The problem with it is you’re assuming that we’re going to have a Republican-versus-Democrat runoff. That’s not a a guarantee. If anything, what’s happening now is actually emphasizing the jungle nature of the way we do things.”
Fletcher, having reviewed various mathematical breakdowns that are possible for the Nov. 8 Senate election, echoed these remarks in terms of the potential runoff variations. He said he could see how an all-Democratic runoff could happen.
Not to be outdone, former klansman David Duke has arguably received more national media attention than the rest of the field combined. Duke is showing up in some polls with nearly 10 percent of all support from white men and his name has become a lightening rod in this race.
The front-running candidates are also having to play it safe in oder to protect their respective bases around the state.
According to averages from the most recently-released public polls, no other candidate has a more consolidated base than Boustany, who lives in Lafayette. His hold on Acadiana is the strongest in the field and has tightened significantly due to his media buys. His opponents are now faced with a decision: either go into Acadiana and try to compete, or endeavor to contain Boustany to Acadiana and cut off his growth elsewhere.
Fleming, who lives in Minden, has the second strongest regional hold in northwest Louisiana. He also has benefitted from a massive television buy. But unlike Boustany, who has doubled down on firming up his Acadiana base, Fleming has taken a divided approach. While the Shreveport region is important, the Fleming campaign has likewise put a special emphasis on the Metairie area and New Orleans.
Then there’s Kennedy, who has a split base: the Northshore, around St. Tammany and Tangipahoa, and the Baton Rouge area. Kennedy has roots in both communities, but he looks like a Baton Rouge candidate on paper, due largely to his job in the Capital City and his upbringing in Zachary. His home, though, is in Madisonville.
Campbell’s campaign has been bolstered by traditional Democratic support, like teachers unions, while Fayard’s campaign has the backing of some key progressives in the party and pro-charter school organizations.
It looks like the campaign will be a media contest in these final weeks of the primary.
“It’s going to have to happen on TV, in commercials,” said Fletcher. “It won’t happen anywhere else.”
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.