August forecast predicts an even calmer hurricane season

Two of the nation’s most-watched hurricane predictors updated their 2015 forecasts this month. Both say the season probably will be even calmer than they projected in the spring.
At Colorado State University, Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray now say their research concludes that Louisiana’s chance of being hit by a hurricane is 30 percent. They say the chance for major hurricane landing is 12 percent.
In April, Colorado State forecast eight named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane this season for the Atlantic Basin. The forecast update released this month is for five named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects hurricane activity for the Atlantic region in 2015 to be below normal. Areas in the region include the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
Between 1981 and 2010, below normal occurrences for tropical storms ranged from four to nine, hurricanes two to four, and major hurricanes zero to two.
Overall, current conditions could produce nine or fewer tropical storms, four or fewer hurricanes, and one or fewer major hurricanes this season.
A below-normal hurricane season probability is “90 percent, and 10 percent chance of a near normal season,” according to NOAA.
In May, the NOAA gave the Atlantic Basin a 70 percent chance for a below-normal hurricane season and a 20 percent chance for a near-normal season.
NOAA cites the “strengthening of El Niño, atmospheric conditions non-conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation, and sea-surface temperatures across the main development region are predicted to stay below average” as reasons for the below normal hurricane season.
El Niño is an irregular South Pacific weather pattern that exerts a strong influence over U.S. weather patterns, often suppressing hurricane development.
“A strong El Niño event is already underway,” Klotzbach said in a news release.
“Conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain unfavorable for hurricane formation. We continue to call for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

This story was written by Shea Drake of The Daily Review staff.