NOAA predicts calm hurricane season

NEW ORLEANS —The head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the 2015 hurricane season probably will have below-normal activity.
But that’s no reason to think coastal areas will have it easy.
Administrator Kathryn Sullivan was joined by Joe Nimmich, deputy director of the Federal Emergency Management Administration, and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu at a news conference today to release the forecast.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA predicts a likelihood of six to 11 named storms, of which three to six could develop sustained winds of 74 mph and become hurricanes.
One or two storms could develop into major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
There’s also a 20-percent chance of a normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” Sullivan said.
She referred to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.
The weather phenomenon called El Nino generally means fewer hurricanes. But the head of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, Mike Halpert, said in March that this year’s El Nino is happening late and is weak.
University of Colorado scientists William Gray and Philip Klotzenbach said in April that they expect one of the least active seasons since the mid-20th century, based on the chance of an El Nino of at least moderate strength this summer and fall. Their early prediction was for seven named storms, three of them hurricanes, and one of those hurricanes major.
In an email Tuesday, Klotzbach said the El Nino has strengthened considerably since March.
“At this point, it is best to characterize it as a moderate-strength event, and we anticipate the event to likely be strong by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” he wrote.
“A strong El Nino will likely significantly reduce storm formation in the Atlantic basin.”
El Nino is a warming in one part of the central Pacific. It changes weather patterns worldwide.
In addition to fewer Atlantic hurricanes, El Ninos are associated with flooding in some places, droughts elsewhere and generally warmer global temperatures.