Analysis: Governor’s field still waiting on Landrieu

By Jeremy Alford
LaPolitics.com
Some say he will. Others downright call it unfathomable. Most simply have no idea what he’ll do.
So until New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu gives a definitive answer on running for governor, pollsters will continue tossing in his name and donors will second guess their investments.
To that end, sources very close to the mayor insist he has not ruled out the possibility of joining the field. But they also say he will soon report having only $30,000 to $40,000 in the bank. While Landrieu is certainly in a position to raise piles of cash fast should he decide to run, it’s not the kind of number a serious candidate would want to start with.
Then again, it’s not exactly due to weak fundraising. Landrieu drained the coffers last year for his re-election and immediately went to war helping his sister in a heated Senate campaign, while dealing with quite a long list of controversial issues in the city.
Democratic operatives suggest Landrieu may be more interested, and better positioned, to become a major influencer in the presidential race. It has become a trend of late to pull from the ranks of big city mayors for top tier D.C. gigs, and Landrieu would once again be following in the footsteps of his mayor-father, who served as secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Landrieu has close ties to the Clinton family, but he could be a strong voice for whichever pol snags the nomination. Rumors have long percolated about possible positions in the Obama Administration, although nothing concrete has surfaced to substantiate the talk.
The indecision on running for governor certainly keeps Landrieu relevant, not that a New Orleans mayor needs inventive ways to stay afloat in political waters. The poll numbers must be entertaining, if nothing else, for the mayor, with him guaranteed to make the runoff against the current slate of candidates.
Hurt most in those surveys by a Landrieu candidacy is state Rep. John Bel Edwards of Amite, the long-declared candidate who has been working the base for more than a year. He also has a billboard prominently displayed by the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Edwards swept aside the rumors in a recent interview and predicted Landrieu will stay where he is.
“Last fall he told a group in Hammond, and I was there, that he would not run,” Edwards said. “He told the people of New Orleans last year that he would not run. I know Mitch to be an honorable person and he’ll live up to his word.”
One donor said he recently pushed Landrieu on the question, but was unable to get a read one way or the other. A government official in New Orleans said Landrieu has implied he is not inclined to run, but a poll showing a clear and definite path to victory could convince him otherwise.
Meanwhile, concerns about the mayor’s standing with unions, firefighters and teachers are overhyped, supporters say, and he would be able to pull together a support system quickly if he indeed decided to become the surprise candidate of 2015.
Yet with each passing day, it appears more and more unlikely, with or without mixed signals.
Anti-tax groups targeting session
National anti-tax organizations like Americans for Tax Reform and Americans for Prosperity are planning to have a noticeable presence at the Capitol during session, and then again when lawmakers face re-election this fall.
Representatives from both groups said they’re ready to mobilize national and grassroots resources — and possibly targeted media buys from ATR — should lawmakers attempt to increase taxes. It’s an early sign that Gov. Bobby Jindal will not be alone in his opposition stance, which includes eliminating tax exemptions in ways that are not revenue neutral.
“We’re going to actively oppose any proposal that creates a net tax increase,” said Patrick M. Gleason, director of state affairs for ATR. “There will be outreach to lawmakers and we also plan to educate their constituencies on how they voted.”
Gleason, who was in Louisiana late last month for meetings, said lawmakers who have signed ATR’s well-known anti-tax pledge will be reminded of their promise.
AFP’s Louisiana Director Phillip Joffrion added, “We are not supportive of net tax increases and we will hold legislators accountable. It is a critically important issue for us.”
Depending on how hard these groups turn the screws, they could take some of the heat off of Jindal, since legislators might be more prone to complain publicly about the special interests than the governor.
The Louisiana Association of Business and Industry can be counted on as an anti-tax voice as well, and sources close to the business community say an overarching narrative is coming together. They suggest that raising taxes is bad policy because it inhibits the ability of businesses to create jobs and make capital investments.
An effort will further be made to show economic improvements in the state since 2008, when Jindal took office and halted the flow of tax increases.
They Said It
During the last weekend in January, the Police Jury Association of Louisiana hosted the candidates for governor and lieutenant governor. Predictably, things were said:
“I don’t want to be confused for a candidate for lieutenant governor. And I definitely don’t want to be confused for Kip Holden.” — St. Martin Parish President Guy Cormier, introducing the candidates and explaining why he wasn’t wearing a jacket
“If you saw me walking down the street last night you would have probably wanted to give me a WWI.” — Cormier, noting the DWI activism of Jefferson Parish President John Young
“I’m glad my get-out-of-jail card worked for you last night.” — Young to Cormier
“We secured Tom Brady’s championship football.” — Young, referring to the event’s auction while holding up a deflated football
“When you get to church, after praying you want to lose your religion.” — Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden, on being an elected official
“I learned there is a green button and a red button. There’s not a yellow button.” — Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, on his voting experience as a legislator
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.