Lawmakers question Red River forecasts

Several Louisiana congressmen have expressed concerns regarding federal agencies’ “inaccurate cresting predictions” for the Red River, which recently crested 3 feet higher than expected and resulted in flood damage across northwest Louisiana, according to a news release from U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy.
Cassidy, Sen. David Vitter, Rep. John Fleming and Rep. Ralph Abraham sent a letter dated June 18 addressed to officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Army.
In the letter, the legislators expressed “deep concern over the recent inaccuracy of cresting predictions produced by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the National Weather Service for the Red River.”
The lawmakers said predictions on the crest of the Red River changed seven times in 13 days. Predictions went from a 31.5-foot crest May 24 to a 34-foot crest May 29, the release stated. Expectations then moved to a 35.5-foot crest June 4, an additional foot on June 5 and finally changed to 37 feet on June 7.
“The seemingly constant changes in crest predictions presented significant challenges for local and state emergency managers,” the letter said.
In an email this morning, Vitter said, “Louisiana absolutely needs accurate data from federal agencies in times of crisis. I’ll continue working with all relevant federal agencies to ensure we’re prepared for anything and get the most accurate assessments and projections.”
The Atchafalaya River receives all of the Red River’s flow, but the recent high water in the Red River wasn’t expected to have much effect on the Atchafalaya due to the Atchafalaya’s much greater depth and breadth, according to a June 20 article in The Advocate.
As of 9 a.m. today, the Atchafalaya River in Morgan City was at 5.08 feet, according to the National Weather Service. The Atchafalaya is projected to crest at 5.2 feet Friday. Flood stage on the Atchafalaya in Morgan City is 6 feet.
Because of Louisiana’s geographic location along the Gulf of Mexico and within the Mississippi River Basin, communities throughout the state rely heavily on timely and accurate information from the Corps of Engineers and National Weather Service on how threats from natural disasters will potentially impact life and property, the letter continued.
“Unfortunately, the recent flooding in north and central Louisiana is an example of the impact inaccurate predictions can have on life and commerce,” the letter stated.
Massive amounts of rain in Texas and Oklahoma raised water levels to the point where Corps of Engineers needed to release water downstream, the letter said.
In early June, the Corps discharged 55,000 cubic feet of water daily from Lake Texoma, Oklahoma.
“That water eventually ended up on the roads and in the backyards of Louisiana communities,” the Congressmen said in the letter.
“The seemingly constant changes in crest predictions presented significant challenges for local and state emergency managers,” the letter stated.
The letter states that the data federal agencies used to create the predictions for Red River cresting was obtained from flooding that occurred in 1990. The Congressmen questioned why the National Weather Service and Corps of Engineers use 25-year-old data to create hydrological models and why the predictions for Red River cresting vary from the river’s real time activity.
The Congressmen also wanted to know what remediation measures the National Weather Service and Corps of Engineers plan to implement following the inaccuracies associated with the Red River cresting predictions, the letter stated. They wanted to know how the National Weather Service and Corps of Engineers will engage local, state, and community leaders in gathering hydrological data for future cresting predictions.
The Daily Review contacted the National Weather Service and Corps of Engineers for comment on the letter but had not received a response as of this morning.