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Analysis: Vitter, Nungesser-Young lead early 2015 poll

By JEREMY ALFORD
LaPolitics.com
Voters, obviously, are not yet tuned into the 2015 ballot, despite the intriguing races it will host.
But that didn’t stop the Metairie-based research firm Multi-Quest from going into the field for 606 live interviews with likely voters to gauge the races for governor and lieutenant governor. Conducted over three days beginning Oct. 22, it has a margin of error of +/-4 percent.
The firm paid for the poll and does not currently have a client in either of the top races.
In the race for governor, U.S. Sen. David Vitter led the group with 25.9 percent, followed by Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne at 10.9 percent.
That’s nearly identical to a Voter Consumer Research Poll from March and a Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research poll from December 2013. A Southern Media and Opinion Research poll from November 2013 showed the same stack up top, only with Vitter leading Dardenne 30-18.
State Rep. John Bel Edwards came in at 4 percent, edging out the only other Democrat in Multi-Quest’s gubernatorial field, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, who hasn’t announced for the race but received 3.8 percent. Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle had 2.3 percent.
While Campbell hasn’t necessarily ruled out running, the big question on the Democratic side is New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, and on the GOP side, Treasurer John Kennedy.
Vitter attracted 41 percent of the Republican vote in the Multi-Quest poll and he scored 32 percent among independents. Dardenne runs strongest in central Louisiana, which includes Baton Rouge, besting Vitter 23-16 there. African-American voters didn’t seem to like the field, with 70 percent undecided or refusing to say.
The poll for governor is punctuated by a large undecided vote overall, around 53 percent, which is still lower than the 72 percent who had no idea which way they would lean for lieutenant governor.
Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser led Jefferson Parish President John Young 10.3-9.6, which amounts to a statistical tie with the margin of error.
Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden, the only Democrat polled, received 8.1 percent. State Sen. Elbert Guillory, R-Opelousas, who has expressed an interest in the race, was not included. Young and Holden polled the same 11.6 percent among black voters.
Marijuana issue
will resurface
After failing to pass a medical marijuana bill last year, state Sen. Fred Mills, R-Parks, is telling supporters he will return in 2015 with legislation that focuses on different applications like oils and pills.
Danny Ford, lobbyist for the Louisiana Cannabis Industry Association, said narrowing the focus of such a proposal is a smart move.
“We’ve got to find a way to get something passed,” he said. “We’re excited about further exploring both the medicinal and agriculture sides of this issue.”
Ford said LCIA will also gear up next year to help educate the candidates for governor and to learn their stances on various issues.
Earlier this month, the association also offered up its endorsement of Congressman Bill Cassidy in the U.S. Senate race. In the first primary debate, Cassidy announced his support for medical marijuana.
Primary appears to have been fraud-free
As big and nasty as the ballot was in the primary, and as high as the stakes were for both parties, there were no serious accusations of voter fraud raised in Louisiana’s top races.
“It was unusually quiet for an election cycle this big,” said Meg Casper, press secretary for Secretary of State Tom Schedler.
Former Congressman Jeff Landry, chairman of the GOP’s voter integrity program, echoed the same.
“It has been really quiet,” Landry told LaPolitics on election night, adding with a smile, “I guess we’ll have to wait and see what the runoffs look like.”
Drinking in some
Huey Long history
Even stranger than the Republican Party’s decision to hold a “unity rally” earlier this month for Congressman Bill Cassidy in a Baton Rouge bar, Huey’s Bar, was the fact that the establishment was named after Louisiana’s most famous Democrat.
Acknowledging the donkey in the room, in the way of explanation, Cassidy told his supporters in the bar that Huey Long, in 1930, was the last U.S. Senate candidate to overthrow an incumbent in Louisiana. Apparently there weren’t any John Overton groupies in the crowd, for no one objected to the factoid.
Long was indeed elected in 1930, but did not claim the seat until 1932, wanting to maintain control over the state rather than hand it over to the lieutenant governor.
After arriving in D.C. in 1932, Huey set his sights on Louisiana’s other Senate seat and put up his ally, then-Congressman John Overton, who took down incumbent Sen. Edwin Broussard. A Senate committee looked into fraud and abuse in relation to the 1932 campaign, noting the “deplorable and distressing political conditions” in Louisiana, but submitted a report with no recommendations.
So it was Overton, not Long, who last overcame an incumbent U.S. senator on a Louisiana ballot.
For whatever it’s worth, if senior Sen. Mary Landrieu is looking to make a similar splash, there’s another bar in Baton Rouge that might be available for a last minute campaign event — Uncle Earl’s on Perkins Road.
UNO polling may be
in jeopardy
The administration at the University of New Orleans has recommended the elimination of the graduate program in the political science department.
But sources at the university now say there could be unintended consequences, like the shuttering of the Survey Research Center, which has long been an independent voice for polling.
Politicos and media executives in the New Orleans area are said to be lobbying UNO heavily.
Maginnis to be included in political hall of fame
The Louisiana Political Museum announced this week that late LaPolitics founder and author John Maginnis will be included in the 2014 class of Louisiana Political Hall of Fame inductees.
Induction activities will be held in Winnfield on Feb. 7 at the Louisiana Political Museum.
Also in the class are former state Rep. Peppi Bruneau, Attorney General Buddy Caldwell, former state Rep. Juba Diez, state Rep. Noble Ellington and late Judge Corky Marvin.
They Said It
“I don’t want you to be brutally honest. Just be honest.”
—House Speaker Chuck Kleckley, during November’s Revenue Estimating Conference meeting
“It is prudent to be on the prudent side.”
—Manfred Dix, Division of Administration economist, during the REC meeting
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.

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