High duck numbers should give reason for pause where prairie is concerned

Chances are, if you were born after 1996 and have become a diehard waterfowl hunter, you’ve always experienced liberal duck seasons. By liberal, I mean 60-day seasons and six-bird bag limits.
In fact, I’d dare say there’s a high probability it also would be true for those in their 20s and many in their 30s.
When the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released its 2014 annual Breeding Population Survey Estimates last week, the report revealed duck numbers remain at record high levels at a whopping 43 percent above the long-term average and exceeded the previous record set in 2012.
Parlay those kinds of numbers with a soaking-wet year that continued right up to the time of the USF&WS announcement and what you have is more good news, according to a press release from Delta Waterfowl.
“Exceptional water this year will lead to high duck production,” Dr. Frank Rohwer, president of Delta Waterfowl, said in the release. “When the prairies are really wet, ducks settle in the best quality habitat. Hens will nest and renest vigorously, and duckling survival will be high.”
Herein lies the problem. No doubt in the coming weeks the framework for 2014-15 waterfowl season will be approved at the Louisiana Department of Wildlife Commission meeting, and for the 18th straight year, a liberal season will be set.
But, the real story isn’t how hunky-dory things are with the breeding numbers and pond count. The prairies have been fortunate, weather-wise, where moisture is concerned.
The real story is how Mother Nature has compensated for what humans are doing on the prairie pothole region of the country, known in waterfowl circles as the “Duck Factory.”
Concerning the prairie, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Waterfowl Study Leader Larry Reynolds said, “Continued excellent water conditions have masked the deterioration of nesting habitat from loss of CRP (Conservation Reserve Program), massive conversion to grain crops, record levels of tiling of lands to increase drainage, and outright wetland drainage.
“However, when dry conditions return, the stage is set for a severe population decline. But, it is tough to convince anyone of it at this point with such high breeding populations,” Reynolds said.
So, what’s the driving force? Let’s see if I can put this in perspective. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 followed the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The initial act created federal mandates for the use of biofuels with 45-cents-per-gallon tax credits to blend ethanol with gasoline. A 54-cents-per-gallon tariff was placed on imported ethanol.
The 2005 federal mandate was set at 7.5 billion gallons of biofuel production and use. And in 2007, the federal mandate was increased to 9.2 billion gallons. But, it doesn’t end there.
By the year 2022, those figures are slated to increase to 36 billion gallons — with the majority coming from “advanced” biofuel or biomass and not coming from corn. Corn has been capped at 15 billion gallons. We’ll have to see how that cap figure lasts.
In a July 14 report posted on AgWeb.com by Marc Schober, editor of farm forecast.com, which is an educational blog devoted to investment in agriculture and farmland, Schober says this year’s U.S. corn yield is expected to slightly exceed the 2009 record of 167.7 bushels per acre.
Schober reported that September’s corn futures Monday were set at $3.81 per bushel of corn. Simple math would tell me that comes to a rounded off estimated yield earning of $639 per acre. A one hundred acre farm would be $63,900.
We’re talking 10s upon 10s of thousands of acres.
The Conservation Reserve Program administrated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture pays farmers rental payments for a specific contract period. Depending on the year contracted and program enrolled in, those payments range from $55 per acre to as much as $150 per acre if it comes with special incentives.
Farmers still have to maintain those Conservation Reserve Program acres, which have associated costs, thus reducing profits coming from those rental payments.
In short, there’s money to be made.
With federal mandates, tax credits and tariffs ensuring ethanol production well into the future marketed as clean energy, no one can blame the farmer for trying to make a living as he opts out of the Conservation Reserve Program.
Jim Dubovsky is a Central Flyway Representative for the USF&WS. Dubovsky acts as a liaison between the service and various organizations that include farmers, energy and environmentalists. Dubovsky says there is always some head butting when it comes to solving key issues cooperatively where the landscape is concerned.
“Basically, the problems in the upper Midwest are increased demand by humans on the landscape,” Dubovsky said. “Tiling, draining, new crops and energy are just a number of things that are having an impact on the prairie. There’s only so much land. And where duck hunters are concerned, they are simply a small part of the population as a whole. With increases in electrical demand, the gadgets we use, even things like new electric cars, what it boils down to is fewer acres of land to support uplands and wetlands.”
The 2014-15 waterfowl season has all the makings of being another good one for hunters — in fact, 18 in a row.
In those enchanting moments staring out over the decoys a half hour before sunrise this fall, hunters should take pause for a moment and realize waterfowl numbers are one drought away from crashing unless something changes.
For now, Mother Nature is picking up our slack.

Breeding Numbers
Species 2014 2013 2013-14 % LTA %
Change Change
Mallard 10.9 10.372 +5% +42%
Gadwall 3.811 3.351 +14% +102%
Widgeon 3.117 2.644 +18% +20%
Green-winged Teal 3.440 3.053 +13% +69%
Blue-winged Teal 8.542 7.732 +10% +75%
Pintail 3.220 3.335 -3% -20%
Shovelor 5.279 4.751 +11% +114%
Redhead 1.279 1.202 +6% +85%
Canvasback .685 .787 -13% +18%
Scaup 4.611 4.166 +11% -8%
Total 49.152 45.607 +8% +43%
*In Millions of Ducks
Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service