November turnout forecasted at 45-50%

By JEREMY ALFORD
While bogged down with qualifying candidates last month, Secretary of State Tom Schedler didn’t lose sight of the true endgame coming in November and December.
He said in an interview that the general election and runoff will be where the real pressure is applied. He also recalled a “common joke” that’s passed down from one secretary to another in his office.
“The last thing you want to be is interviewed on the last day of an election cycle,” Schedler said laughing. “They’re not going to congratulate you. They’re talking to you because something went wrong.”
From a unique jungle primary system to a race that may decide the balance of the U.S. Senate, to one congressional race hosting an ex-con governor and another featuring a kissing incumbent, there is a great deal of interest nationally in Louisiana’s 2014 elections.
“This particular cycle is going to be bigger than a presidential election,” Schedler said. “Maybe not in participation, but definitely in the amount of money from outside of the state and also media scrutiny. (SOS press secretary) Meg (Casper) is getting one or two calls a week, or more, from national media asking to learn about our voting procedures, demographics and trends.”
That kind of attention has Schedler on his toes and pressing hard on the folks who make elections happen on the ground, like clerks, poll workers and his staff.
“I’m telling them there is no room for error,” he said. “If you need something, let’s get it addressed now. Don’t call me a week before the election — especially this election.”
With so much drama, one might expect statewide turnout to be astronomical, but Schedler is estimating somewhere between 45 percent and 50 percent for the November general election, “leaning more toward the lower side.”
The last midterm congressional cycle in 2010 saw a 44 percent turnout, while in 2006 it was a paltry 33 percent.
So far only three of the more than two dozen states around the country that have held primaries have surpassed their turnouts from four years ago.
In 2008, the last time U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu was on the ballot, turnout in Louisiana was 67 percent, but that was when she shared space with President Barack Obama.
With the federal campaigns and state parties spending unprecedented amounts of money on turnout, and sophisticated models being employed, politicos believe the 50 percent threshold can be surpassed. Then again, consultants are wondering if voters will be turned off by the coming onslaught of TV spending, particularly for the Senate race.
For the record, the all-time statewide turnout record stands at 73 percent, which was produced in 1991 by the Edwin Edwards-David Duke governor’s race.
While the Democratic and Republicans parties don’t want to minimize ongoing registration efforts — hundreds of new voters are supposedly being signed up for what will be a tight Senate race — both sides agree the same kind of aggressive drives seen in recent years are no longer needed.
Schedler agreed as well, noting 85 percent of Louisiana’s eligible voters have been registered.
“There’s not a whole lot of growth room there,” he said. “I just wish we’d put as much emphasis on turnout now as we have on registration in the past.”
Schedler, a Republican from Mandeville, was recently elected as the president-elect of the National Association of Secretaries of State, a position a Louisiana official has not held since the late Fox McKeithen. He takes over next year, but has been involved with the association since taking office in 2010.
One of the most significant takeaways from his national outreach, he said, has been learning just how far ahead of the curve Louisiana is, from its voting app to online voter registration.
“I think we shortchange ourselves,” he said. “The Pew Foundation, ranking election systems, moved us to 18th in the country and we used be down there in the 40s with Mississippi and Arkansas. We’ve left them in the dirt.”
LABI boosting PACs
The Louisiana Association of Business and Industry oversees four political action committees named for each cardinal point in the state, as in NorthPAC, SouthPAC, and so on.
Individually they can provide a candidate with a $2,500 maximum donation, but a grand slam, meaning contributions from all four, can bring home $10,000 for a pro-business politician.
To the delight of candidates, those figures could soon be going up.
Should all go as planned, LABI’s so-called “small PACs” will become “big PACs” by the end of the year, thus doubling the amounts they can give just in time for the 2015 state elections.
All of the PACs will soon launch new websites so they can accept online donations and, more importantly, each committee can boost its members to 250, with a minimum donation of $50 per — the required threshold to become a big PAC in Louisiana.
Fleming stands opposite leadership, whip
When House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, undertook his first real test on the floor in late July with a controversial border bill, he received pushback from a member of his home delegation.
Teaming up with other conservatives, Congressman John Fleming, R-Shreveport, caused the leadership to shelve its proposal and present a compromise the following day.
“I think this incident is indicative of some potential split between John Fleming and Steve Scalise,” a senior GOP staffer told LaPolitics. “This was not some great principled stance. This was political. I think they wanted to make a statement about the new leadership team. Before the bill was pulled, the opposition was given a chance to speak and none did so.”
Fleming was part of a group of House members, mostly from the conservative Republican Study Committee Scalise previously chaired, to meet with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz the day the bill was pulled.
Even though there’s a running joke in the national media that if Speaker John Boehner wants to get something done he needs to go through Cruz, a tea party darling, Louisiana sources in D.C. say his influence is being exaggerated.
More than one source also said the Cruz meeting was pre-scheduled and not meant to be a planning session to befuddle the leadership.
This kind of positioning is nothing new for Fleming, who was among the first House Republicans to openly criticize Boehner in 2012 in an attempt to influence policy from a more conservative perspective.
That’s to say Fleming hasn’t changed; what has changed is Scalise and his new leadership role.
While both camps contend that Scalise managed to salvage the border bill practically overnight and address the amnesty concerns voiced by Fleming and other conservatives, the question remains whether Scalise will be able to continue to do so. If not, Fleming could get crossways with his fellow delegation member once again.
Doug Sachtleben, Fleming’s communications director, offered the following statement: “Rep. Fleming was encouraged that the new majority whip was able to move House leadership to work constructively with conservatives, and he is optimistic that this bodes well for the future.”
They Said It
“He started it.” — Congressman Vance McAllister, R-Swartz, on his ongoing feud with Gov. Bobby Jindal, at last month’s LegisGator event in Lake Charles
They Tweeted It
“When @WomenSucceed, America succeeds. I’ve always said, ‘Up with skirts, down with pants!’” — Edwin Edwards, on Women’s Equality Day
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.