El Niño's end could mean more tropical weather

Meteorologists expect the Morgan City area to continue to have hotter than normal weather this summer, and the region should see a drier weather pattern as well by the summer’s end. However, conditions may also be more conducive to hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin as early as August.

Temperatures in the area so far this summer are a couple of degrees above the norm, reaching into the low 90s instead of topping out at 90 to 91 degrees, National Weather Service Meteorologist Roger Erickson said.

Greater dew points are pushing the heat index even higher. The heat index typically reaches 100 to 105 degrees this time of year, but the region is experiencing heat indexes from 105 to 110 degrees, Erickson said.

For the next two weeks, Erickson expects the area to continue to see above-average temperatures and heat indexes with an occasional break from the heat due to rainfall.

As the weather pattern transitions out of El Niño into La Niña, there likely will be a dry end to the summer with a continuation of above average temperatures. The hot and dry weather should last into the fall, Erickson said.

El Niño occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean are higher than normal. La Niña happens when the water temperatures are below the average.

La Niña makes for a more favorable environment to develop hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, Erickson said.

Forecasters anticipate La Niña will start as early as August, which is sooner than normal, Erickson said, although the transition could occur as late as October.

“The big question mark is going to be the timing of all this, because if it (La Niña) develops quicker, then we may see some more storms … towards the end of the season” in September through November in the Atlantic Basin, Erickson said.

A high pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is currently funneling warm air into Louisiana. If that pattern continues, the system could also keep Louisiana out of the “hurricane alley,” steering hurricanes elsewhere, he said.

But if the high pressure system shifts further east, hurricanes could be more likely to hit Louisiana.

“That thing wobbles all year long so it’s one of those things we’ll be monitoring as we go through the season,” Erickson said.

Louisiana’s greatest chance to have a hurricane hit is generally from mid-August through early October.

There have been four named storms so far in 2016 in the Atlantic Basin. One hurricane developed in January followed by three tropical systems in May and June. But those systems were “short-lived” and “weak,” Erickson said.

Stronger storms and hurricanes generally show up in mid-August and September.

Meteorologists predict a total of 15 named storms this season, a number that’s above the 12-storm average.

Five or six storms are expected to become hurricanes, and one to three hurricanes could be at least a Category 3 storm.

Last summer was dominated by El Niño in the Pacific Ocean as water temperatures were “quite a bit above normal,” Erickson said. The Atlantic region has gone through several years of below normal hurricane activity.

El Niño pulls stronger winds down from Canada into the area and usually causes a wetter weather pattern for Louisiana but less of a chance of hurricanes. In La Niña, winds are pushed north toward the Canadian border, and the south experiences overall drier weather but a greater chance of hurricanes, he said.

Most of the time, La Niña eventually causes a drought, and Erickson wouldn’t be surprised if Louisiana goes into a drought before the end of the year.

Erickson offers the following tips to stay safe during the hottest time of year and during hurricane season.

—Try to avoid extended periods of time outside during the hottest part of the day, from late morning through the afternoon.

—If you do have to go outside, make sure you drink plenty of water to stay hydrated and take lots of breaks.

—Otherwise, stay indoors in the air conditioning during the hottest times of day.

—Don’t let your guard down during hurricane season.

—Stay informed about possible tropical storm or hurricane activity by keeping track of news reports.